Commentary  25923
4th Quarter, 2018 Housing Statistics: Illinois


Part 1: HOUSING MARKET FORECAST

12 Month Forecast:        UP
Forecast Accuracy:      91%

LittleBigHomes.com publishes forecasts for the trend in home prices in all 50
states, the District of Columbia and 380 Metropolitan Statistical Areas. The
House Price Trend will be either UP or DOWN. The forecast for the trend in the
Illinois housing market for the 12 months ending with the 4th Quarter of 2019 is
UP. The Accuracy of the Trend Projection for Illinois is 91%. In other words,
when tested against historical data, the forecasting methodology was correct
91% of the time. Accordingly, LittleBigHomes.com estimates that the probability
for rising house prices in Illinois is 91% during this period. If this Housing Market
Forecast is correct, home prices will be higher in the 4th Quarter of 2019 than
they were in the 4th Quarter of 2018. Check this page each quarter for updates
to the Illinois Real Estate Market Forecast.


3 Year Forecast:            UP
Forecast Accuracy:      84%

The forecast for the trend in the Illinois housing market for the 3 years ending
with the 4th Quarter of 2021 is UP. The Accuracy of the Trend Prediction for
Illinois is 84%. In other words, when tested against historical data, the
forecasting methodology was correct 84% of the time. Accordingly,
LittleBigHomes.com estimates that the probability for rising house prices in
Illinois is 84% during this period. If this Housing Market Forecast is correct,
home values will be higher in the 4th Quarter of 2021 than they were in the 4th
Quarter of 2018. Check this page each quarter for updates to the Illinois Real
Estate Market Forecast.




Part 2: MARKET SUMMARY
4th Quarter, 2018 Housing Data: Illinois


Historical Home Price Appreciation
Last Quarter                                     -0.22%
Last Year . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .  2.6%
Last 5 Years                                     18%
Last 10 Years . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1%
Last 20 Years                                   55%
Decline From All Time High               5.90%


Annual Home Price Appreciation Rates
1989      7.51%
1990      3.71%
1991      4.39%
1992      3.44%
1993      3.48%
1994      3.90%
1995      4.64%
1996      2.87%
1997      3.38%
1998      3.01%
1999      4.62%
2000      6.64%
2001      5.94%
2002      6.05%
2003      6.76%
2004      8.30%
2005      8.54%
2006      4.03%
2007      -0.22%
2008      -5.98%
2009      -7.25%
2010      -2.41%
2011      -4.70%
2012      -1.37%
2013      0.81%
2014      3.92%
2015      2.98%
2016      3.73%
2017      3.34%
2018      2.56%


Real Estate Appreciation, Rank & Percentile
Last Quarter                              -0.22%        Rank: 39 of 51 (24th Percentile)
Last Year  . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .  2.6%           Rank: 45 of 51 (12th Percentile)
Last 5 Years                              18%            Rank: 39 of 51 (24th Percentile)
Last 10 Years  . . . . . . . . . . . .   1%              Rank: 49 of 51 (4th Percentile)
Last 20 Years                            55%            Rank: 48 of 51 (6th Percentile)
Decline From All Time High        5.90%

The change in home prices for Illinois are shown above for five time periods.
For example: Illinois appreciated -0.22% in the Last Quarter. At that rate, the
Illinois Real Estate Market was ranked 39th out of the 51 real estate markets of
all 50 U.S. States and the District of Columbia. Illinois was in the 24th percentile.
So Illinois performed better in the Last Quarter than 24% of these 51 real estate
markets.

























Part 3: MARKET HIGHLIGHTS
4th Quarter, 2018 Housing Statistics: Illinois

The data and analysis on this page pertains to Illinois, hereinafter referred to as
"Illinois". The all time high in the Illinois Home Price Index was 373.5 in the 1st
Quarter, of 2007. The 4th Quarter, 2018 index value was 351.4. That's a
decline of 22.04 points or 5.90% below the Illinois Home Price Index all time
high.  The Home Price Index indicates that the Illinois Market is up 1% over the
last 10 years. Home prices in the Illinois Real Estate Market have gained 2.56%
over the last 12 months. Over the last thirty years, it is up 130%.

The 4th Quarter index value was 0.79 points lower than the 3rd Quarter, 2018
index value of 352.23, resulting in a 0.22% decline for the 4th Quarter in the
Illinois Market.

The Illinois Home Price Index declined in the last quarter after increasing in the
previous 22 quarters. That makes Illinois the current record holder for
consecutive quarterly declines in the Home Price Index (along with West
Virginia; Vermont; Rhode Island and Oregon; which also had 1 consecutive
quarterly declines). The current record holder for consecutive increases in the
Home Price Index is Washington DC, with increases in the last 31 consecutive
quarters.

The highest annual change in the value of houses in the Illinois Real Estate
Market was 21% in the twelve months ended with the 4th Quarter of 1977. The
worst annual change in home values  in the Illinois Market was -8% in the twelve
months ended with the 1st Quarter of 2010.

The highest growth in home values in the Illinois Real Estate Market over a
three year period was 30% in the three years ended with the 3rd Quarter of
1988. The worst performance over a three year period in the Illinois Market was
-17% in the three years ended with the 1st Quarter of 2011.

This page provides a long term graph and commentary of the Illinois Home
Price Index.  Bookmark this page! Then LittleBigHomes.com's detailed research
and statistics about Illinois Home Prices will be at your fingertips when you need
them.

All calculations are based on the quarterly value of the House Price Index for
the Illinois Market. The terms House Price Index and Home Price Index, as used
in this site, refer to the Federal Housing Finance Agency (FHFA) House Price
Index.

Significant time is required to research quarterly sales price and appraisal data
from mortgage transactions in the Illinois Real Estate Market. As a result, Home
Price data is not available for a number of months after the end of each quarter.



Part 4: APPRECIATION RATES & RANKINGS
4th Quarter, 2018 Housing Data: Illinois

The trend of Illinois Home Prices relative to 50 states and the District of
Columbia is detailed below. Five different time periods are reviewed.  Each
paragraph identifies the top and bottom performing markets as well as the
average and median performance for all cities during each time period. The
data and analysis on this page pertains to Illinois, hereinafter referred to as
"Illinois".

Last Quarter:
During the 4th Quarter of 2018, Illinois Home Prices had a rank of 39, with
appreciation of -0.22%. The top performing real estate market during the 4th
Quarter was Hawaii, with a rise of 2.20%. The worst market during that period
was Minnesota, with appreciation of -0.87%.
The median for all markets during the 4th Quarter was 0.32%. The average for
the quarter was 0.45%.

Last Year:
During the last 12 months, Illinois Home Prices had a rank of 45, with
appreciation during the year of 2.56%. The top performing market during the
last year was Nevada, with an increase of 13.9%. The worst real estate market
during that period was Alaska, with appreciation of 0.4%.
The median for all markets during this period was 5.66%. The average was
5.63%.

Last 5 Years:
Over the 5 years ended with the 4th Quarter of 2018, Illinois Home Prices
ranked 39, with a total appreciation of 17.6%. The top performing real estate
market during the 5 year period was Nevada, with a growth in value of 70%.
The worst market during that period was Connecticut, with appreciation of 7%.
The median for all markets during this period was 26%. The average over the 5
years was 29%.

Last 10 Years:
During the 10 years ended in the 4th Quarter of 2018, Illinois Home Prices had
a rank of 49, with appreciation during the decade of 1%. The top performing
market during the period was Colorado, with a rise of 64%. The worst real
estate market during the 10 year time period was Connecticut, with appreciation
of -7%.
The median for all markets over the last 10 years was 20%. The average over
that time frame was 22%.

Last 20 Years:
During the 20 years ended in the 4th Quarter of 2018, Illinois Home Prices had
a rank of 48, with total growth over the 20 year period of 55%. The top
performing real estate market during the period was Washington DC, with an
increase of 354%. The worst market during the last 20 years was Ohio, with
appreciation of 43%.
The median for all markets during the last 20 years was 101%. The average  
over that period was 105%.

Historical research data on the Home Price Index for the Illinois Real Estate
Market is available back to the 1st Quarter, of 1975. All calculations are based
on the quarterly value of the House Price Index for Illinois. Real estate
appreciation figures represent total net increase or decrease over each time
period. (Unless specifically stated, the figures do not represent annual or
quarterly rates of change.)



Data Source for Commentary & Charts: Federal Housing Finance Agency
Updated Wednesday, April 10, 2019.
SignalTrend  Inc. 2008 - 2019; All rights reserved.


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Illinois - House Price Index (HPI)
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The House Price Index (HPI) shows changes in Illinois single family home prices in logarithmic
scale. The March, 1995 index value equals 100.  Real estate forecasts, analysis, statistics and
appreciation rates are provided below.
1975
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1995
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2005
2010
2035
2015
2020
2025
2030
100
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