Commentary  25958
4th Quarter, 2018 Housing Statistics: West Virginia


Part 1: HOUSING MARKET FORECAST

12 Month Forecast:        UP
Forecast Accuracy:      82%

LittleBigHomes.com publishes forecasts for the trend in home prices in all 50
states, the District of Columbia and 380 Metropolitan Statistical Areas. The
House Price Trend will be either UP or DOWN. The forecast for the trend in the
West Virginia housing market for the 12 months ending with the 4th Quarter of
2019 is UP. The Accuracy of the Trend Projection for West Virginia is 82%. In
other words, when tested against historical data, the forecasting methodology
was correct 82% of the time. Accordingly, LittleBigHomes.com estimates that the
probability for rising house prices in West Virginia is 82% during this period. If
this Housing Market Forecast is correct, home prices will be higher in the 4th
Quarter of 2019 than they were in the 4th Quarter of 2018. Check this page
each quarter for updates to the West Virginia Real Estate Market Forecast.


3 Year Forecast:            UP
Forecast Accuracy:      78%

The forecast for the trend in the West Virginia housing market for the 3 years
ending with the 4th Quarter of 2021 is UP. The Accuracy of the Trend
Prediction for West Virginia is 78%. In other words, when tested against
historical data, the forecasting methodology was correct 78% of the time.
Accordingly, LittleBigHomes.com estimates that the probability for rising house
prices in West Virginia is 78% during this period. If this Housing Market
Forecast is correct, home values will be higher in the 4th Quarter of 2021 than
they were in the 4th Quarter of 2018. Check this page each quarter for updates
to the West Virginia Real Estate Market Forecast.




Part 2: MARKET SUMMARY
4th Quarter, 2018 Housing Data: West Virginia


Historical Home Price Appreciation
Last Quarter                                     -0.63%
Last Year . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .  1.4%
Last 5 Years                                     11%
Last 10 Years . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 11%
Last 20 Years                                   59%
Decline From All Time High               0.63%


Annual Home Price Appreciation Rates
1989      3.82%
1990      2.80%
1991      4.69%
1992      4.42%
1993      4.46%
1994      4.07%
1995      5.71%
1996      1.96%
1997      5.01%
1998      4.23%
1999      0.10%
2000      3.40%
2001      5.32%
2002      4.16%
2003      3.61%
2004      7.40%
2005      10.64%
2006      3.79%
2007      1.24%
2008      -2.30%
2009      -1.98%
2010      1.09%
2011      -1.45%
2012      0.25%
2013      2.01%
2014      1.85%
2015      2.60%
2016      2.45%
2017      2.25%
2018      1.43%


Real Estate Appreciation, Rank & Percentile
Last Quarter                              -0.63%        Rank: 49 of 51 (4th Percentile)
Last Year  . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .  1.4%           Rank: 49 of 51 (4th Percentile)
Last 5 Years                              11%            Rank: 49 of 51 (4th Percentile)
Last 10 Years  . . . . . . . . . . . .   11%            Rank: 40 of 51 (22nd Percentile)
Last 20 Years                            59%            Rank: 45 of 51 (12th Percentile)
Decline From All Time High        0.63%

The change in home prices for West Virginia are shown above for five time
periods. For example: West Virginia appreciated -0.63% in the Last Quarter. At
that rate, the West Virginia Real Estate Market was ranked 49th out of the 51
real estate markets of all 50 U.S. States and the District of Columbia. West
Virginia was in the 4th percentile. So West Virginia performed better in the Last
Quarter than 4% of these 51 real estate markets.

























Part 3: MARKET HIGHLIGHTS
4th Quarter, 2018 Housing Statistics: West Virginia

The all time high in the West Virginia Home Price Index was 240.1 in the 3rd
Quarter, of 2018. The 4th Quarter, 2018 index value was 238.6. That's a
decline of 1.51 points or 0.63% below the West Virginia Home Price Index all
time high.  The Home Price Index indicates that the West Virginia Market is up
11% over the last 10 years. Home prices in the West Virginia Real Estate
Market have gained 1.43% over the last 12 months. Over the last thirty years, it
is up 138%.

The 4th Quarter index value was 1.51 points lower than the 3rd Quarter, 2018
index value of 240.10, resulting in a 0.63% decline for the 4th Quarter in the
West Virginia Market.

The West Virginia Home Price Index declined in the last quarter after increasing
in the previous 6 quarters. That makes West Virginia the current record holder
for consecutive quarterly declines in the Home Price Index (along with Vermont;
Rhode Island; Oregon and Ohio; which also had 1 consecutive quarterly
declines). The current record holder for consecutive increases in the Home
Price Index is Washington DC, with increases in the last 31 consecutive
quarters.

The highest annual change in the value of houses in the West Virginia Real
Estate Market was 35% in the twelve months ended with the 2nd Quarter of
1982. The worst annual change in home values  in the West Virginia Market
was -28% in the twelve months ended with the 3rd Quarter of 1982.

The highest growth in home values in the West Virginia Real Estate Market over
a three year period was 25% in the three years ended with the 1st Quarter of
2006. The worst performance over a three year period in the West Virginia
Market was -7% in the three years ended with the 2nd Quarter of 2011.

This page provides a long term graph and commentary of the West Virginia
Home Price Index.  Bookmark this page! Then LittleBigHomes.com's detailed
research and statistics about West Virginia Home Prices will be at your
fingertips when you need them.

All calculations are based on the quarterly value of the House Price Index for
the West Virginia Market. The terms House Price Index and Home Price Index,
as used in this site, refer to the Federal Housing Finance Agency (FHFA)
House Price Index.

Significant time is required to research quarterly sales price and appraisal data
from mortgage transactions in the West Virginia Real Estate Market. As a result,
Home Price data is not available for a number of months after the end of each
quarter.



Part 4: APPRECIATION RATES & RANKINGS
4th Quarter, 2018 Housing Data: West Virginia

The trend of West Virginia Home Prices relative to 50 states and the District of
Columbia is detailed below. Five different time periods are reviewed.  Each
paragraph identifies the top and bottom performing markets as well as the
average and median performance for all cities during each time period.

Last Quarter:
During the 4th Quarter of 2018, West Virginia Home Prices had a rank of 49,
with appreciation of -0.63%. The top performing real estate market during the
4th Quarter was Hawaii, with a rise of 2.20%. The worst market during that
period was Minnesota, with appreciation of -0.87%.
The median for all markets during the 4th Quarter was 0.32%. The average for
the quarter was 0.45%.

Last Year:
During the last 12 months, West Virginia Home Prices had a rank of 49, with
appreciation during the year of 1.43%. The top performing market during the
last year was Nevada, with an increase of 13.9%. The worst real estate market
during that period was Alaska, with appreciation of 0.4%.
The median for all markets during this period was 5.66%. The average was
5.63%.

Last 5 Years:
Over the 5 years ended with the 4th Quarter of 2018, West Virginia Home
Prices ranked 49, with a total appreciation of 11.0%. The top performing real
estate market during the 5 year period was Nevada, with a growth in value of
70%. The worst market during that period was Connecticut, with appreciation of
7%.
The median for all markets during this period was 26%. The average over the 5
years was 29%.

Last 10 Years:
During the 10 years ended in the 4th Quarter of 2018, West Virginia Home
Prices had a rank of 40, with appreciation during the decade of 11%. The top
performing market during the period was Colorado, with a rise of 64%. The
worst real estate market during the 10 year time period was Connecticut, with
appreciation of -7%.
The median for all markets over the last 10 years was 20%. The average over
that time frame was 22%.

Last 20 Years:
During the 20 years ended in the 4th Quarter of 2018, West Virginia Home
Prices had a rank of 45, with total growth over the 20 year period of 59%. The
top performing real estate market during the period was Washington DC, with
an increase of 354%. The worst market during the last 20 years was Ohio, with
appreciation of 43%.
The median for all markets during the last 20 years was 101%. The average  
over that period was 105%.

Historical research data on the Home Price Index for the West Virginia Real
Estate Market is available back to the 1st Quarter, of 1975. All calculations are
based on the quarterly value of the House Price Index for West Virginia. Real
estate appreciation figures represent total net increase or decrease over each
time period. (Unless specifically stated, the figures do not represent annual or
quarterly rates of change.)



Data Source for Commentary & Charts: Federal Housing Finance Agency
Updated Wednesday, April 10, 2019.
SignalTrend  Inc. 2008 - 2019; All rights reserved.



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West Virginia - House Price Index (HPI)
LittleBigHomes.com
The House Price Index (HPI) shows changes in West Virginia single family home prices in
logarithmic scale. The March, 1995 index value equals 100.  Real estate forecasts, analysis, statistics
and appreciation rates are provided below.
1975
1980
1985
1990
1995
2000
2005
2010
2035
2015
2020
2025
2030
100
1000
10