Harrisburg, PA - House Price Index (HPI)
Harrisburg Real Estate Market Forecast
The House Price Index (HPI) shows changes in Harrisburg-Carlisle, PA single family home prices in
logarithmic scale. The March, 1995 index value equals 100.  Real estate forecasts, analysis, statistics
and appreciation rates are provided below.
Harrisburg Real Estate Market: Trend Outlook, Analysis & Statistics
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Commentary  2634.56
3rd Quarter, 2018 Housing Statistics: Harrisburg, Pennsylvania


Part 1: HOUSING MARKET FORECAST

12 Month Forecast:        UP
Forecast Accuracy:      89%

LittleBigHomes.com publishes forecasts for the trend in home prices in 380
Metropolitan Statistical Areas. The House Price Trend will be either UP or
DOWN. The forecast for the trend in the Harrisburg housing market for the 12
months ending with the 3rd Quarter of 2019 is UP. The Accuracy of the Trend
Projection for Harrisburg is 89%. In other words, when tested against historical
data, the forecasting methodology was correct 89% of the time. Accordingly,
LittleBigHomes.com estimates that the probability for rising house prices in
Harrisburg is 89% during this period. If this Housing Market Forecast is correct,
home prices will be higher in the 3rd Quarter of 2019 than they were in the 3rd
Quarter of 2018. Check this page each quarter for updates to the Harrisburg
Real Estate Market Forecast.


3 Year Forecast:            UP
Forecast Accuracy:      83%

The forecast for the trend in the Harrisburg housing market for the 3 years
ending with the 3rd Quarter of 2021 is UP. The Accuracy of the Trend
Prediction for Harrisburg is 83%. In other words, when tested against historical
data, the forecasting methodology was correct 83% of the time. Accordingly,
LittleBigHomes.com estimates that the probability for rising house prices in
Harrisburg is 83% during this period. If this Housing Market Forecast is correct,
home values will be higher in the 3rd Quarter of 2021 than they were in the 3rd
Quarter of 2018. Check this page each quarter for updates to the Harrisburg
Real Estate Market Forecast.




Part 2: MARKET SUMMARY
3rd Quarter, 2018 Housing Data: Harrisburg, Pennsylvania


Historical Home Price Appreciation
Last Quarter                                     1.10%
Last Year . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .  3.3%
Last 5 Years                                     12%
Last 10 Years . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 6%
Last 20 Years                                   64%



Annual Home Price Appreciation Rates
1988      7.88%
1989      4.08%
1990      2.67%
1991      4.34%
1992      3.19%
1993      3.13%
1994      2.41%
1995      4.50%
1996      0.81%
1997      3.78%
1998      3.59%
1999      0.18%
2000      2.39%
2001      5.15%
2002      3.58%
2003      5.94%
2004      6.69%
2005      10.14%
2006      6.47%
2007      3.00%
2008      0.31%
2009      -1.23%
2010      -0.96%
2011      -2.27%
2012      -0.35%
2013      -1.50%
2014      1.48%
2015      1.79%
2016      4.30%
2017      2.64%


Real Estate Appreciation, Rank & Percentile
Last Quarter                              1.10%         Rank: 237 of 381 (37th Percentile)
Last Year  . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .  3.3%           Rank: 301 of 381 (21st Percentile)
Last 5 Years                              12%            Rank: 326 of 381 (14th Percentile)
Last 10 Years  . . . . . . . . . . . .   6%              Rank: 301 of 381 (21st Percentile)
Last 20 Years                            64%            Rank: 264 of 379 (30th Percentile)


The change in home prices for Harrisburg-Carlisle, PA are shown above for five
time periods. For example: Harrisburg appreciated 1.10% in the Last Quarter.
At that rate, the Harrisburg Real Estate Market was ranked 237th out of 381
metropolitan Real Estate Markets. Harrisburg was in the 37th percentile. So
Harrisburg, PA performed better in the Last Quarter than 37% of the 381
metropolitan areas covered in LittleBigHomes.com.

























Part 3: MARKET HIGHLIGHTS
3rd Quarter, 2018 Housing Statistics: Harrisburg, Pennsylvania

The data and analysis on this page pertains to Harrisburg-Carlisle, PA,
hereinafter referred to as "Harrisburg". The all time high in the Harrisburg Home
Price Index was 184.2 in the 3rd Quarter, of 2018.  The Home Price Index
indicates that the Harrisburg Market is up 6% over the last 10 years. Home
prices in the Harrisburg Real Estate Market have gained 3.35% over the last 12
months. Over the last thirty years, it is up 126%.

The 3rd Quarter index value was 2.00 points higher than the 2nd Quarter, 2018
index value of 182.20, resulting in a 1.10% rise in the 3rd Quarter for the
Harrisburg Market.

The Harrisburg Home Price Index has increased for the last 6 consecutive
quarters. The current record holders for consecutive increases in the Home
Price Index are Phoenix, AZ; Houston, TX and Boise City, ID, with increases in
the last 29 consecutive quarters. The current record holders for consecutive
declines in the Home Price Index are Winchester, VA; Trenton, NJ; Peoria, IL;
Great Falls, MT and Fayetteville, NC, with declines in the last 2 consecutive
quarters.

The highest annual change in the value of houses in the Harrisburg Real Estate
Market was 35% in the twelve months ended with the 2nd Quarter of 1982. The
worst annual change in home values  in the Harrisburg Market was -17% in the
twelve months ended with the 2nd Quarter of 1983.

The highest growth in home values in the Harrisburg Real Estate Market over a
three year period was 27% in the three years ended with the 3rd Quarter of
2006. The worst performance over a three year period in the Harrisburg Market
was -6% in the three years ended with the 2nd Quarter of 2011.

This page provides a long term graph of the Harrisburg Home Price Index
(above). For information about Pennsylvania home values, click Real Estate
Market Forecasts in the navigation bar at the top of this page.  You'll see long
term charts and analysis that will provide tremendous insight into the historical
trends of residential property values. Bookmark this page! Then
LittleBigHomes.com's detailed research and statistics about Harrisburg Home
Prices will be at your fingertips when you need them.

All calculations are based on the quarterly value of the House Price Index for
the Harrisburg Market. The terms House Price Index and Home Price Index, as
used in this site, refer to the Federal Housing Finance Agency (FHFA) House
Price Index.

Significant time is required to research quarterly sales price and appraisal data
from mortgage transactions in the Harrisburg Real Estate Market and hundreds
of other cities. As a result, Home Price data is not available for a number of
months after the end of each quarter.



Part 4: APPRECIATION RATES & RANKINGS
3rd Quarter, 2018 Housing Data: Harrisburg, Pennsylvania

The trend of Harrisburg Home Prices relative to 380 other metropolitan areas is
detailed below. Each metropolitan area contains one or more cities. Five
different time periods are reviewed.  Each paragraph identifies the top and
bottom performing markets as well as the average and median performance for
all cities during each time period. The data and analysis on this page pertains
to Harrisburg-Carlisle, PA, hereinafter referred to as "Harrisburg".

Last Quarter:
During the 3rd Quarter of 2018, Harrisburg Home Prices had a rank of 237, with
appreciation of 1.10%. The top performing real estate market during the 3rd
Quarter was Sumter, SC, with a rise of 13.55%. The worst market during that
period was Cumberland, MD, with appreciation of -5.75%.
The median for all cities during the 3rd Quarter was 1.57%. The average for all
markets during the quarter was 1.54%.

Last Year:
During the last 12 months, Harrisburg Home Prices had a rank of 301, with
appreciation during the year of 3.35%. The top performing market during the
last year was Las Vegas, NV, with an increase of 18.1%. The worst real estate
market during that period was Cumberland, MD, with appreciation of -5.6%.
The median for all markets during this period was 6.14%. The average was
6.07%.

Last 5 Years:
Over the 5 years ended with the 3rd Quarter of 2018, Harrisburg Home Prices
ranked 326, with a total appreciation of 12.0%. The top performing real estate
market during the 5 year period was Reno, NV, with a growth in value of 81%.
The worst market during that period was Jacksonville, NC, with appreciation of
-2%.
The median for all cities during this time period was 24%. The average over the
5 years was 28%.

Last 10 Years:
During the 10 years ended in the 3rd Quarter of 2018, Harrisburg Home Prices
had a rank of 301, with appreciation during the decade of 6%. The top
performing market during the period was Denver, CO, with a rise of 83%. The
worst real estate market during the 10 year time period was Vineland, NJ, with
appreciation of -19%.
The median for all markets during the last 10 years was 18%. The average for
the cities over that time frame was 20%.

Last 20 Years:
During the 20 years ended in the 3rd Quarter of 2018, Harrisburg Home Prices
had a rank of 264, with total growth over the 20 year period of 64%. The top
performing real estate market during the period was San Francisco, CA, with an
increase of 289%. The worst market during the last 20 years was Saginaw, MI,
with appreciation of 21%.
The median for all cities during the last 20 years was 83%. The average for the
markets over that time frame was 92%.

Historical research data on the Home Price Index for the Harrisburg Real Estate
Market is available back to the 4th Quarter, of 1979. All calculations are based
on the quarterly value of the House Price Index for Harrisburg. Real estate
appreciation figures represent total net increase or decrease over each time
period. (Unless specifically stated, the figures do not represent annual or
quarterly rates of change.)



Data Source for Commentary & Charts: Federal Housing Finance Agency
Updated Saturday, December 29, 2018.
SignalTrend  Inc. 2008 - 2018; All rights reserved.





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